A time bomb is characterised not only by its abruptness and unexpectedness but by its devastating effects. Such a time bomb is ticking away, second after second, to the ultimate explosion, which will leave a world without man in it; a mirthless and horrific world as far as human consciousness is concerned.
Homo sapiens or the thinking men are, most probably, the youngest species on earth. Man is special and unique in many ways. He has the power to modify his habitat tremendously and fashion his life to his choice.
Primitive man’s needs were very few. He ate foods found in nature, and slept in huts fashioned out of materials collected from around him. He went about practically nude unless the air was too cold.
As man became more and more civilized, his needs proportionately grew. The first step in becoming civilized was the invention of agriculture. Simultaneously he started to keep cattle, sheep and fowls. These two activities needed tools. Thus, farming and allied activities threw up a lot of opportunities for employment which did not exist previously.
Until a couple of centuries back, people all over the world mainly lived on farming and related activities. Thanks to the Industrial Revolution, making things for human comfort became easier and goods became cheaper. Things once considered to be luxuries became affordable to common man. As a result, consumption grew. To meet this growing demand, business employed more people. A new class of labour, the industrial labour, came into existence. Because his wages were higher than those of the agricultural labourer, and because he had no opportunity to produce his food and basic needs, he came to depend more and more on the manufactured or marketed goods. This further increased demand, and threw up more employment opportunities. Increased consumption creates more jobs and more jobs means further increase in consumption. Thus, consumption and job opportunities have been increasing as ever expanding spirals.
In advanced economies, as little as two percent of the total workforce finds employment in farming. The rest live by making goods and providing services which are not essential for human existence. For example, you can do without shaving cream or hair dye. You can postpone or cancel the plan to buy a new car.
Suppose, in a globally unprecedented situation, a few million people lose their jobs overnight. These few million, having lost their earning and purchasing powers will stop consuming. A further slump in consumption will reduce demand of a number of goods and services and another round of job losses will ensue.
Panic will send the stock markets plummeting and those who lived comfortably with the income from shares and securities will find themselves pauperised in a fortnight.
The expansion in consumption and consequent creation of jobs achieved in fifty years will vanish in a few months.
No economy in the world can insulate itself from a global financial crisis. We have already two examples before us. When the World Trade centre was attacked, the stock markets all over the world plummeted. Then again, when the financial crisis popped banks in the
In olden days, most regions in the world were more or less self sufficient. That is, they could survive without the supply of goods and services from other regions. If a particular country or region was economically ruined, the outside world was practically unaffected. Now-a-days, things have fundamentally changed. A car plant in
To eat, clothe and to have a roof to sleep under are the basic needs of any person. Under forced circumstances, you can and you will avoid all other pleasures and comforts. You will certainly cancel your winter trip to hotter climes. Your car will run fewer kilometres, if it runs at all. There will be billions of people like you, who will try to survive on whatever resources left.
Ghost cities without any business, traffic or activity will be usual sights. Extreme poverty will trigger riots, organized plunder and crimes. The worldwide unrest will trigger wars and bloodshed. In a few years, the world population will dwindle to well below a billion.
What, for example, will trigger the economic time bomb?
Suppose a terrorist organization succeeds in planting and exploding a small atom bomb in the heart of
The Methane Time Bomb may explode sooner, warming the world unbelievably fast. The consequences will certainly trigger the Economic time Bomb.
Again, a war between two atomic weapon states, say
Economists assume that by the ever expanding spiral of more consumption and more jobs, economic growth and prosperity could be kept on growing.
In some countries, there is a statutory regulation that furniture in offices should be replaced by new pieces even if the old ones could be used for a number of years more. The aim is to promote the furniture industry. During the Great Depression of the thirties,
All throughout human history, this has been the story of economic growth: more consumption, more production, and more jobs. Even today, governments around the globe apply this method to stimulate the economy. They pump into the system more funds, causing a spurt in consumption energising the economy.
There is the story of Pakistani agents dumping fake currency notes in the border districts of
We hear a lot about economic stagnation in developed countries like
The economists of all hues assume that further increase in consumption in any economy is possible and a decent growth rate can be sustained. But this may not be possible under all circumstances. On the other hand, it is possible that a sufficiently important but unexpected event can sent back the global patterns of consumption and consequently, job opportunities, to those prevalent a hundred years back. Such a catastrophe has never happened before, because the present level of globalisation and interlinking of world economies is something new. Besides, consumption at the present rates has never before been achieved.
The table below gives the patterns of consumption in Kerala, the South Indian state, now, and a century back. The rates of consumption are not as high as in the wealthier countries, but definitely higher than those prevailing in most developing countries. However, a hundred years back, patterns of consumption in most parts of the world were similar except in footwear, clothing and housing. Cold climates always called for more sophistication in these areas.
| Item | Consumption now | Consumption in 1910 |
| Housing | Units built by skilled labour using industrial products | Units built mostly by the user, using locally available materials |
| Electricity | Universally used | Use was not known |
| Footwear | Everybody uses | Only a selected few used |
| Phones | Almost everybody owns a phone | Use was not known |
| Clothing | The cost and quantity of clothes used by men and women are on a par with those used by the people in the West. . | Scarcely. Only young women wore upper garments |
| Transportation | Vehicles powered by petroleum fuels are used for travel and transportation of goods. | People mostly travelled on foot. Vehicles drawn by animals were used in the transportation of goods. |
| Farming | Most people have abandoned agriculture and those who are still in the profession have shifted to cash crops. | Majority of people were engaged in agriculture |
Just imagine the extent of job loses if the economy suddenly slides back to 1910 levels.
The fate of the world depends on how far the level of consumption may go back in a crisis. If it goes back to 1910 levels, billions of people around the globe will be thrown out of employment and the fate of humanity will be doomed. It may take another millennium to regain the present level of industrial production and employment generation.
No government can totally prevent a global catastrophe caused by the sudden shrinkage in demand. However, by ensuring regional food security, much can be done. Food production should be heavily subsidised so that farmers may be dissuaded from straying into more lucrative areas such as rubber and soy cultivation.
Many of the cottage and village industries everywhere in the world used to produce goods with locally available raw materials. Industries using coconut fibres, jute, bamboo plies, etc. gave employment to millions of workers. Surky, a mixture of sugar and lime was used even in building dams. Invention of cement and plastic has ruined these industries. Government policies can revive the old industries ensuring employment to millions of workers in the event of a collapse of the present industrial culture and consequent loss of jobs.
In half a century, we have forgotten, discarded or destroyed the survival methods evolved through millennia and it is impossible to fall back to the old ways overnight. A gradual reinvention of the age old methods may ward off a total ruin.
Mahatma Gandhi advocated for the revival of the rural small-scale industries in
Whatever be the reason, unless the governments are cautious, the present model of economic growth based on unbridled consumerism, will wreak havoc to human civilization, sooner or late.
Religions are concerned about the welfare of mankind. The dos and don’ts prescribed by all religions are aimed at making human life on earth happy, peaceful and prosperous so that the life after death is a guaranteed in heaven.
No religion, to my knowledge, has prescribed dos and don’ts to its followers so that human race is saved from extinction. Therefore, scientific knowledge and economic wisdom should take the place of old religions so that human race is saved from total ruin.
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